With the U.S. elections just over a week away, experts in the market, such as Matthew Sigel from VanEck, are discussing the potential trajectory of Bitcoin.
Today, Bitcoin saw a daily high of $69,230 after bouncing back from a bearish weekend where it dropped to $65,000. During an interview with CNBC, Sigel, who is the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, addressed Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq and the “Magnificent 7.” The CNBC host expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s status as a safe haven, noting its recent alignment with risk assets.
Sigel explained that these correlations are constantly changing. While Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has been historically low at around 0.1 over a 10-year period, it has recently risen to 0.5. Some investors find this concerning as they prefer lower correlations with traditional risk assets.
Sigel, however, emphasized that VanEck views the current setup as highly bullish for Bitcoin, drawing parallels to 2020 when Bitcoin lagged with low volatility and then rallied once the election results were confirmed. He expects new buyers to enter the market post-election, driving its price up. Additionally, he suggested that a post-election U.S. sovereign debt downgrade by Moody’s could further catalyze Bitcoin’s rise.
The discussion then turned to Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, with the host questioning whether this feature strengthens its appeal as a hedge against currency debasement. Sigel pointed out that Bitcoin is not a U.S. asset but an emerging market asset. He noted that BRICS nations, including Argentina, the UAE, and Ethiopia, are incorporating Bitcoin with government resources to find a way to circumvent irresponsible fiscal policies.
Sigel also mentioned that Russia is investing its sovereign wealth fund in regional projects to build Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure, aiming to settle global trade in Bitcoin. He suggested that in the future, these countries may be trading with Bitcoin, raising the question of what the U.S. will be doing.
When asked whether Bitcoin could hit $100,000 or even $200,000 soon, Sigel responded affirmatively. He noted that the smallest-ever trough-to-peak rally for a Bitcoin cycle was 2,000%. According to him, if the market achieves half of that, it would be a 1,000% increase, bringing the price to roughly $180,000. He believes that after the election will be a significant catalyst for this to happen.
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