Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market? Key Indicators That Hold the Answer
March 19, 2025
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Bitcoin is exhibiting lower volatility than previous weeks, posting a paltry 0.23% gain in the last 24 hours. This flat performance comes as market participants anticipate Bitcoin’s next moves. Some believe a bear market is already upon us, while others remain bullish. Amid this, prominent market watcher Ali Martinez conducted a deep dive and explored major market indicators to determine whether the market has indeed shifted into a bear season.
Major Signals for a Bear Market
First, Martinez pointed out that several indicators suggest Bitcoin is undergoing a shift in its macro trend. One such indicator is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, which tracks spot and derivative exchange flows. This indicator confirms that a major corrective phase is currently in progress.
Furthermore, the analyst noted that the MVRV Ratio indicates a shift in Bitcoin’s momentum from positive to negative. He emphasized that changes in MVRV momentum have historically marked significant turning points for Bitcoin. Additionally, Martinez observed that large investors seem to be exercising caution and actively selling into the market. Specifically, data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin miners have realized over $27 million in profits just this month. Similarly, Bitcoin whales have taken even larger profits, surpassing $260 million in March alone.
Meanwhile, capital inflows have dropped significantly, plummeting from $135 billion in December 2024 to just $4 billion today. According to data from Glassnode, this current low level was last observed in October 2023.
Capital inflows hit $4.16 billion, a level last seen in October 2023!
How Low Can Bitcoin Go in a Bear Market?
Amid these concerning observations, Martinez offered insights into potential support levels for Bitcoin’s price. He suggested that the $66,000 to $69,000 range could serve as key support. The inspiration for these targets came from multiple indicators. First, IntoTheBlock data shows that 750,000 investors purchased 313,000 BTC around the $69,000 mark. Additionally, Glassnode data highlights Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which suggests strong support near $69,354. The Mayer Multiple also points to $66,000 as a significant support level, especially after BTC’s recent dip below the 200-day SMA this month.
For context, Bitcoin is trading at $83,200 as of today. A drop to $66K would mean an additional loss of 20.67%. Already, Bitcoin has plummeted by 23.76% from its all-time high. Meanwhile, Martinez suggested that even lower Bitcoin prices are still possible. He pointed to a historical trend, noting that over the past decade, whenever Bitcoin dropped below the 50-week SMA, it eventually reached the 200-week SMA, which is currently at $46,000. This suggests a potential drop to $46K in a bear market.
Historically, when #Bitcoin $BTC drops below the 50-week MA, it tends to test the 200-week MA. Right now, that’s at $75,500 and $46,000, respectively!
Hope for Bitcoin Bulls
Nonetheless, all hope for a Bitcoin recovery is not lost. Martinez pointed to data showing that global liquidity is rising, which has historically been linked to Bitcoin recoveries around mid-April. In a separate trend, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, confirmed that U.S. liquidity might be bottoming out. This is important for Bitcoin because rising liquidity could boost risk markets like crypto, similar to how increased liquidity fueled the 2021 bull run. Per the chart he shared, liquidity has been flat in the current cycle, contributing to Bitcoin’s struggles.
Martinez suggested that, for now, Bitcoin must reclaim $93,700 as support, as this could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach $111,000.
Crucially, reclaiming $93,700 as support could propel #Bitcoin $BTC toward $111,000.
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