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Bitcoin Outlook Turns Even More Bullish as US Bank Credit Supply Rises: Arthur Hayes
March 20, 2025
former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes
U.S. bank credit supply may be rising in a likely boon for risk assets like Bitcoin, according to industry pundit Arthur Hayes.
Is the Bitcoin bull market over, or have rumors of its death been greatly exaggerated? This has become an increasingly tricky question, as the asset’s recent price action and on-chain metrics have split analysts. One analyst in the latter camp now suggests he has further evidence that, contrary to the views of skeptics, things are about to get exciting for the leading digital asset.
In a tweet today, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested that U.S. bank credit supply may be on the rise, which could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. Specifically, Hayes claimed that his custom U.S. bank credit supply index was moving higher, calling it “another good sign for BTC.”
This sentiment is based on the idea that a rise in credit supply means more credit available for borrowers, injecting liquidity into risk markets. However, Hayes cautioned that this doesn’t necessarily signal an immediate end to price weakness but increases the odds of a bullish turnaround.
Arthur Hayes custom US bank credit supply index Source Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin Already Bottomed?
Earlier in the day, Hayes had suggested that Bitcoin had likely hit its bottom when it fell to $77,000 earlier in March. He made this argument by claiming that quantitative tightening was effectively going to end on April 1.
This follows Wednesday, March 19, statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank would slow down the shrinking of its balance sheet starting April 1.
According to Hayes, however, the real bullish cue will be either the Federal Reserve’s implementation of a Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption or the kicking off of quantitative easing.
JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up. — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 20, 2025
SLR is a capital requirement imposed on banks to ensure they have a minimum amount of capital relative to their total leverage exposure. The Fed exempted banks from this requirement during the COVID-19 pandemic to encourage lending, bolstering economic activity and market liquidity.
In a recent interview, Hayes asserted that he expected Bitcoin to rally to $250,000 by year-end.
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