The current decline in Bitcoin following its halving mirrors the trends seen during the halving bull market cycle from 2015 to 2017, hinting at a potentially similar path ahead.
As of today, Bitcoin has retraced to the $49,000 price range, a level it hasn’t seen in over seven months. This price point re-emerged after Bitcoin’s value fell sharply from a peak of $61,000 to $49,000, resulting in a notable correction of nearly 20% within a single day.
The cryptocurrency market has been eagerly anticipating a new all-time high for Bitcoin since its most recent halving. Yet, the asset has repeatedly struggled with low values. On April 20, the day of the halving, Bitcoin was valued at $65,442 but has since dropped by approximately 26%.
In light of this performance, seasoned market analysts have observed a compelling historical parallel, suggesting valuable insights regarding the asset’s future direction.
### Bitcoin’s Historical Trends Post-Halving
In a recent analysis, experienced trader Peter Brandt pointed out market data indicating that the current Bitcoin retracement closely resembles the 2015-2017 halving bull market cycle.
The data revealed that the second Bitcoin halving took place on July 9, 2016. During that week, BTC concluded at $650, but it soon fell to a low of $470, representing a post-halving dip of 27%. Brandt’s chart demonstrated that Bitcoin encountered a resistance level at $790, which it needed to surpass to enter a new price phase. Eventually, it overcame this challenge and reached a new cycle high of around $20,000 approximately 24 weeks later.
In the third halving cycle, Bitcoin experienced only a 10% decline post-halving before achieving a new all-time high of about $69,000 within 25 weeks.
Bitcoin post halving pattern by Peter Brandt
Currently, Bitcoin has already declined by 26% in this cycle, reminiscent of the 2015-2017 period. It remains in its halving year and has spent 16 weeks consolidating thus far. The asset continues to face a notable resistance threshold at $73,800 and has struggled to maintain the $70,000 mark after re-entering that range.
### Bitcoin’s Resistance Levels
Significantly, there are 6.96 million wallets that collectively hold 3.75 million BTC in the price range of $62,344.91 to $72,500. This range constitutes the largest cluster of holdings among all Bitcoin price thresholds, making it an important resistance point.
Bitcoin IOM | IntoTheBlock
However, some analysts have contested Brandt’s perspective, highlighting key differences, such as Bitcoin’s achievement of a new all-time high prior to the latest halving, which diverges from historical trends. Additionally, indicators of a global recession have been pointed out as unique bearish pressures that could affect Bitcoin in this cycle.
As of this report, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $52,023, easing from the heightened volatility witnessed earlier today.
**Disclaimer:** This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses incurred.