ethereum_analysis
Ethereum Targets $2,529 as Exchange Supply Hits 10-Year Low
March 21, 2025
Ethereum
Ethereum is poised for a bullish comeback, with a potential post-retest reversal and declining supply on exchanges. Could this lead to an ETH price of $2,529?
Ethereum, currently trading at $1,970, is back under the $2,000 mark. The 24-hour pullback of 1.92% comes as a retest of a range breakout.
Amid this pullback, the increased movement of Ethereum tokens in the market signals a potential surge in volatility. With the growing uncertainties, could a post-retest reversal in Ethereum push its price past the $2,100 mark?
Declining Supply Hints Demands Surge in Ethereum
The short-term recovery in Ethereum toward the $2,000 mark has led to an increased outflow from crypto exchanges. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, 360,000 ETH tokens have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 48 hours.
This has reduced the ETH supply on exchanges to 8.97 million. With the decreasing supply and the growing number of DeFi staking options, Santiment reports that the current ETH supply on exchanges is the lowest it’s been in the past 10 years, since November 2015.
This marks a 16.4% reduction in the ETH available on exchanges compared to the past seven weeks.
Whale Activity Brings Old Coins Back to Market
As the supply on exchanges continues to decline, whale activity in the crypto market has risen.
According to a recent tweet by LookOnChain, a whale has withdrawn 8,313 ETH tokens worth $16.52 million from Binance. The whale currently holds 11,198 ETH tokens worth $22.06 million.
On the other hand, another giant whale has made a significant move, entering the market after eight years to deposit 34,125 ETH, worth $67.2 million, on Coinbase. The deposit occurred at an average price of nearly $1,970.
In March 2017, the whale, identified as 0x086, accumulated these ETH tokens from various exchanges like Bitfinex, Shapeshift, Binance, and Changelly, at an average price of $46.3.
If the whale intends to sell, they could realize a profit of $65.66 million, marking a massive 4,156% return on investment.
Outflow Season Continues For Ethereum ETFs
On March 20, the daily total net outflow of Ethereum ETFs stood at $12.41 million. BlackRock led the outflows with $8.96 million, followed by Fidelity with $3.45 million. Meanwhile, the rest of the ETFs maintained a net zero flow.
The outflow season continued, marking the 12th consecutive day of outflows since March 5. This ongoing outflow season, which began on February 20, has only seen one day of inflow on March 4, amounting to $14.58 million.
Ethereum Analysis Points Price Target at $2,529
With the supply on exchanges declining, Ethereum’s price action suggests a potential comeback. In the 4-hour price chart, the current pullback in Ethereum from the overhead resistance at $2,076 is likely a retest of a range breakout.
As Ethereum remains above the $1,950 mark, the chances of a post-retest reversal are still in play. However, the pullback has resulted in a negative crossover between the MACD and signal lines.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the halfway mark despite falling from the overbought boundary. This indicates a decline in bullish momentum, yet the overall uptrend keeps the outlook optimistic.
In the case of a bullish reversal, Ethereum is likely to break above the $2,076 resistance level, increasing the chances of reaching the $2,529 target. On the downside, the crucial support level below $1,950 is at $1,850.